Andrew: I specifically mentioned mutation in regard to Green Zebra which would be hard to keep crosses with a secret because of two traits. Green when ripe, and stripes. I suspect most strains of Green Zebra retain those two traits but have accumulated other mutations. I mentioned it because of reading somewhere that it has "landraced out" a bit. Being an early Tom Wagner development, it has had time and hundreds of gardens to do so. Releasing a variety like Green Zebra is kind of like growing it out in a 1000-acre field. You would get some mutation! Especially over about 50 years!
Talking about mutations, they do occur, and I found one last year! An Earl's strain Jagodka plant had reticulate patterns on the skin of several tomatoes including just half of one. I saved seed from the tomato that was entirely reticulate, and have it replanted to see if the trait comes back.
In another paragraph I agreed with you that yes, many outcrossings go unnoticed. I suspect that is why I have two strains of Jagodka both of which I think can trace their origins back to the same garden not that long ago.
My strain of Matina is potato leaved; I think Joseph wrote once that his was regular leaved which is funny to me because I only got it because he wrote about it. Same with Jagodka- I got the other strain when Joseph was out of seed.
I think Joseph's Brad indeed might be an ancestor of that potato leaved red exserted that showed up in the 2017 Lofthouse seed mix as some of the sibling lines have had those spots. Though there is also a Brad Gates tomato in my garden that has spots- maybe Dark Galaxy. I definitely have had some spotty tomatoes segregate out over the years from one, the other, or both.
I was thinking I should grow out my entire collection and let my wife sell seed, but without 50 feet of isolation for inserted varieties and 150 for exserted I think the chances of crossing might be too high. I suspect some of the sellers with very large collections may neither isolate nor bag. This would lead to some outcrossing.
I have found crosses in seed packets from others. I found an anthocyanin cross in with Golden Tressette from Alan Kapuler and I found some regular leaf and from their vigour likely hybrids in a packet of Brad from Joseph. I suspect that is also one reason many gardeners end up with not true to type strains- the cross happens at the seed seller and the gardener doesn't know any better because they aren't yet familiar with the strain. Then they save seed and share the cross onward... Or even the original packet as they already grew a plant from it. I often only grow four seeds from the original packets I get. I try to save the bulk of my growing space for segregating material. The only time I do a really proper grow out of something I think is when I do an isolated garden for seed increase.
Also talking about crossing chances- I suspect that last year was an awesome crossing year here and I blame a heat wave, and this year I wonder if it will be- and I blame a cold wave. Just a observation- longer stigmas last year, shorter stigmas this year. At least so far! The stigmas may lengthen up as the weather warms up! So far I would say the one plant of Big Hill which even though it came out of a crossing block I suspect simply because it has a perfect Big Hill style stigma is uncrossed- nonetheless it seems to be a more weather stable stigma type somehow than the potato leaf strains have inherited. Some of my tomatoes still have modest exsertion, just not as much as last year and I do think that length of exsertion matters for crossing rate. Kind of a hard trait to measure but I think when its just a few millimeters it isn't going to be as good.
Another thing that I think occurs is mislabeling. When I was working at a local greenhouse soon after my son was born we got some Stupice seed that was a mix of regular leaf and potato leaf. The regular leaf were some kind of mistake. Either the result of a cross or maybe an accidental seed mixing of another variety. When I was growing out Payette for a seed crop I noticed I had a mix of a dwarf and a normal tomato. The normal tomato did not segregate back to dwarf and my assumption therefore was that it was a contaminate not a cross- and that is what the company thought too but I did grow out that tomato and save its seed and plant it in case it was a fun cross with Payette- and the lack of segregation suggested it was not.
Though one question I have is bees: I have been growing tomatoes now for 7 years in a row. I wonder if my local bee populations have gotten used to having the tomato pollen resource, and if so do my tomatoes now enjoy a higher rate of cross pollination in consequence?
Nonetheless- I still think this basic idea of hybrid recipes is still viable because tomatoes do self at very high rates and varieties do exist which are very stable, very naturally inbreeding, and very easy to obtain. Though there might be some problem varieties out there. For instance, varieties known to be a bit exserted might be ones to exclude. Many potato leaf varieties are somewhat famously so. However, if you have obtained them from a reputable seed house and they seem true to type it should be fine to use them- though you might include the name of the seed house you obtained that seed from in your recipe.